More than 10 years of HSL-Zuid: ambitions realized?

In 2009, the first train ran on the HSL south line between Schiphol, Rotterdam, Breda and Antwerp. Use of the line grew steadily in the years that followed, though not without challenges. By now, the HSL (up until the Covid‑19 crisis) has held a stable and clearly defined position in both the national and international rail network for several years: Paris can be reached in just over three hours, and HSL-Zuid has become an essential part of the Dutch rail system. Its role in domestic rail services is even greater than originally expected, though not all international ambitions have been realised. These findings emerged from an evaluation carried out by Decisio on behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

HSL-Zuid was built with the ambition of connecting the Netherlands to the European high‑speed rail network. Two main objectives guided its development: strengthening the economic position of the Netherlands and the Randstad, and providing an alternative to car and air travel (particularly to free up capacity at Schiphol). These objectives formed the core of the evaluation.

Economic Contribution Positive but Limited

It is difficult to determine whether the economic contribution is as large as intended. This is partly because the expected contribution was never fully operationalised, and partly because it cannot be isolated within standard economic indicators such as employment or Gross Domestic or Regional Product (GDP/GRP). Many factors influence these indicators, and the expected effect of HSL‑Zuid is modest and primarily local. The improvement in accessibility can be assessed because clear expectations were set for it.

Domestic passenger numbers exceed expectations

Although the original focus was on international rail services, it became clear even before completion that HSL‑Zuid would be at least as important for domestic travel. The figures confirm this: in 2019, 8.5 million passengers travelled on the Rotterdam–Schiphol section, and similar numbers were reached on Rotterdam–Breda once the intercity service between The Hague Central and Eindhoven began using the HSL‑Zuid route. Internationally, 5.5 million passengers crossed the border via HSL‑Zuid each year.

International passenger numbers therefore fell short of the original ambitions. The service to Paris performs as expected, but longer‑distance routes (beyond Paris) did not materialise, and the direct connection to London took a long time to launch. The Intercity Brussels does not use high‑speed rolling stock and includes additional stops, meaning that from Rotterdam it is no faster to Antwerp or Brussels than the ‘old’ IC Brussels via Roosendaal. A notable side effect of HSL‑Zuid is the freed‑up capacity on the conventional rail network. Some connections have deteriorated (for example between Dordrecht and Brabant), but the improvements elsewhere (such as between Brabant and Amsterdam Zuid via The Hague/Rotterdam) are more significant.

Train Replaces 0.3–1.1 Million Air Travellers to Paris

A substantial share of travellers between Amsterdam and Paris would have flown if HSL‑Zuid had not existed. Train passenger numbers on this route grew strongly, while the number of air passengers increased more slowly compared with other European destinations. The shift from air to rail also appears stronger than the shift from car to rail. Compared with a scenario without a high‑speed connection, an estimated 0.3–1.1 million travellers between Amsterdam and Paris have chosen the train over the plane since 2008.

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