The southern Randstad faces the challenge of building at least 250,000 homes by 2040 within an already highly urbanised environment, in line with the region’s economic development. Upgrading the mobility system is essential to integrate this growth effectively into the existing urban fabric. To this end, the Schaalsprong Metropolitaan OV en Verstedelijking (MOVV) programme has been established. The ‘schaalsprong’ includes expanding rail capacity between Leiden and Dordrecht, developing high‑quality regional public transport, upgrading stations (as multimodal hubs), and constructing several new stations. The region aims to sustainably increase prosperity, strengthen agglomeration benefits and enable further urbanisation.
In 2020, the Schaalsprong MOVV was submitted to the National Growth Fund (NGF). The NGF issued a positive assessment and reserved up to €1 billion for the most urgent and enabling components of the programme: expanding rail capacity between Delft and Schiedam‑Centrum, and addressing the shared‑track bottleneck near Laan van NOI station. The advisory committee asked the national and regional authorities to further elaborate an optimised investment package centred on these components. In 2021, Decisio worked closely with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW), MRDH, the municipalities of The Hague and Rotterdam, Rebel and Goudappel Coffeng to develop and substantiate the revised NGF proposal, including a full cost‑benefit analysis (CBA).
National Growth Fund Round 3
The structure of the Growth Fund has changed. Infrastructure projects are no longer eligible for funding; instead, the fund now supports projects in knowledge development and research & innovation. This includes opportunities in education and skills development, as well as fundamental research and the advancement of new technologies or ideas in areas such as energy, mobility and the living environment.
To qualify for funding, a project must strengthen the sustainable earning capacity of the Netherlands and contribute to major societal transitions. Equally important is the strategic justification: is government intervention legitimate? Does the proposal address a societal problem efficiently? We can support you in answering these questions. A social cost‑benefit analysis, as applied in the Schaalsprong MOVV, is an excellent tool for strategically underpinning your proposal.
€7.5 billion for unlocking urban development areas
In place of NGF funding, the coalition agreement introduced new arrangements for financing accessibility challenges in urban development areas. An additional €7.5 billion has been reserved in the Mobility Fund for the next ten years. Investments qualify if they score well against the criteria of an integrated spatial assessment framework. This framework evaluates the housing value (e.g. contribution to reducing shortages, affordability, feasibility in the short term) and accessibility value (e.g. proximity, sustainable mobility, resolving existing bottlenecks). It also assesses whether plans are socially cost‑effective and meet key preconditions.
With our extensive experience in area development, urbanisation challenges and the assessment of their (societal) impacts, we can support you in substantiating the housing value and accessibility value of your development projects.
Developing and substantiating the NGF investment package
To determine the optimised NGF package Schaalsprong MOVV, three sets of measures were assessed in a CBA to identify which interventions offer the greatest potential benefits for societal welfare and the sustainable earning capacity of the Netherlands. The analysis incorporated the committee’s recommendations and assessed the contribution of each measure to societal objectives such as improving accessibility to key economic locations and supporting major urban development and housing projects. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to capture risks and uncertainties, including the effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic, changing urban mobility behaviour and further urbanisation in the southern Randstad. The study also examined the effectiveness of several alternative measures (behavioural interventions, multimodal travel, cycling routes) that require little or no additional infrastructure.
Schaalsprong MOVV contributes effectively to societal benefits and broad prosperity
The SCBA assessed costs and benefits under both low and high economic and demographic growth scenarios. In the high‑growth scenario, the optimised NGF package is socially beneficial, with a benefit‑cost ratio of 1.6. In the low‑growth scenario, the ratio is 0.6, reflecting fewer travellers, lower economic development and reduced parameter values. In simple terms, every euro invested yields between €0.60 and €1.60 in societal and economic benefits over a 100‑year period. Naturally, these outcomes are subject to uncertainty: what are the long‑term effects of the pandemic on public transport demand? How will the mobility transition evolve? The analysis also found that several alternative measures do not provide a full solution to the mobility bottlenecks in the southern Randstad.
The full report can be read here: MKBA Schaalsprong MOVV
Decisio has long been involved in the Schaalsprong Metropolitaan OV en Verstedelijking Zuidelijke Randstad (MOVV) programme. In 2020, we also supported regional authorities, transport regions and the ministries of IenW and BZK in submitting the MOVV proposal to the NGF and prepared societal business cases for various development locations. For more information about the findings or the methodologies used, please contact Daan van Gent or Niels Hoefsloot.
