The Netherlands faces several major spatial challenges in the coming years, from the housing shortage to the transition towards sustainable energy and a circular economy. With an additional need for 250,000 homes and space for employment, this also applies to the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (MRA). Against this backdrop, the national government and regional partners have been working since 2020 on an integrated development strategy for the Amsterdam Bay Area (ABA): Amsterdam IJburg, Almere Centre and Pampus, and the wider bay area. The ambition is to develop ABA into an attractive place to live, work and relax.
€7.5 billion for unlocking urbanisation areas
Instead of funding through the National Growth Fund, the coalition agreement introduced new arrangements for financing accessibility challenges in urbanisation areas. An additional €7.5 billion has been reserved in the Mobility Fund for the next ten years. Investments qualify if they score well against the criteria of an integrated spatial assessment framework. This framework evaluates the housing value (including contribution to reducing shortages, affordability, and short‑term feasibility) and the accessibility value (including proximity, sustainable mobility, and resolving existing bottlenecks). It also assesses whether plans are socially cost‑effective and meet several preconditions.
With our extensive experience in area development, urbanisation challenges and the assessment of their (societal) impacts, we can support you in substantiating the housing value and accessibility value of your development ambitions.
Development perspectives: an IJmeer connection or expanding capacity on the Hollandse Brug
Decisio assessed the development strategy for ABA in terms of societal costs and benefits. Insights from various studies were brought together in a social cost benefit analysis (SCBA). Three integrated development perspectives — area development, mobility solutions, nature and recreation — were compared. One perspective focuses on increasing rail capacity via the Hollandse Brug, while the other two propose a new connection across the IJmeer. This IJmeer link would connect Almere Centre via Pampus to Amsterdam. One variant is designed for metro and bicycle traffic; the other also accommodates cars.
Result: IJmeer connection for metro and bicycle most favorable
The SCBA shows that the mobility solution has the greatest influence on the societal profitability of the development perspectives. It demonstrates that developing ABA with a (rail) connection via the Hollandse Brug is less favorable than the two IJmeer alternatives. The IJmeer connection is far more viable, delivers substantial travel‑time savings and comfort benefits for passengers, and strengthens the agglomeration power of the MRA. This is particularly true for the variant accommodating metro, bicycle and car traffic. However, the additional benefits for car traffic do not outweigh the higher investment costs and societal impacts (traffic safety, CO₂ emissions).
Aside from the mobility solution, the differences between the IJmeer variants and the Hollandse Brug option are relatively small. Only the creation of an inland lake in Almere Pampus increases residential amenity and contributes to climate adaptation, but on its own does not generate a positive balance for the IJmeer‑based development perspectives. Overall, the SCBA concludes that the IJmeer link for metro and bicycle offers the most favorable outcome and is societally profitable.
