Cycling potential: estimating the impact of spatial interventions

A key question before investing in, for example, a new cycling bridge or a high‑quality cycle route is how many cyclists will (or are likely to) use it. Cycling potential helps answer this question. It is a transparent method that estimates both current use and the expected increase resulting from a spatial intervention.

A cycling intervention not only changes the number of cycle trips; it also generates (indirect) social effects. More cycling, for instance, has an impact on public health, the environment and overall liveability. The number of cycle trips therefore forms essential input for social cost benefit analyses (SCBAs) or social business cases. Traffic models can be used to provide this input, but they have limitations. Traffic studies often lack detailed information on current and future cycling volumes, and traffic models do not always offer a clear picture of the (expected) number of cycle trips.

Cycling potential works in much the same way as a traffic model: it calculates transport flows based on origins and destinations. The advantage of this method is the improved visibility of assumptions, parameters and calculation methods. In fact, these are fully transparent, making it easier to assess the robustness of the results.

The map below shows examples of cycling‑potential studies previously carried out by Decisio. We distinguish between studies on (fast) cycle routes, engineering structures and networks.

More information

For more information about what Decisio can offer in cycling studies, please contact Freek Lier (f.lier@decisio.nl).